Forecasting
New weather and climate research on forecasting, one page per paper.
All summaries
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ForecastingA 13 km machine learning weather model matches ICON on near-surface forecasts
AICON, a graph neural network trained on high-resolution ICON data without multi-step rollout, is now operational at DWD and competes with ICON near the surface, but it smooths fine scales and underestimates cyclone intensity.
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ForecastingCMIP7 proposes seven emission scenarios, run mostly in emission-driven mode
ScenarioMIP for CMIP7 sets out seven emission scenarios, from High to Very Low, to be run mostly with CO2 emissions driving the models, with some extended to 2500.
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ForecastingMulti-GPU model simulates a Berlin-wide flood at 5 m resolution in 34 minutes
With eight GPUs, the RIM2D flood model can simulate a 48-hour rainstorm over all of Berlin fast enough for early warning, at 10 m, 5 m and even 2 m resolution.
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ForecastingDry land before a flash drought is linked to stronger heat feedback during it
Satellite data show that flash droughts starting from water-stressed land have stronger surface heating, and in parts of Africa low vegetation water content 1–2 months earlier goes with hotter peaks.
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ForecastingTen-member ICON ensemble with two-moment ice scheme detects more ice-supersaturated air
Adding a two-moment ice scheme and a ten-member ensemble to the ICON model raises the share of ice-supersaturated regions detected from 0.4 to 0.6 for one run, and to 0.8 for a three-member vote.
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ForecastingNew EAWS Matrix standardizes avalanche danger assessment across Europe
The EAWS Matrix is a decision-support tool developed by European avalanche forecasters that assigns danger levels by linking snowpack stability, how frequently it occurs, and expected avalanche size.
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ForecastingRainfall-based drought index is the top predictor of hydrological drought in the Huaihe Basin
An XGBoost model predicted next-month hydrological drought category correctly 79.9 % of the time in the Huaihe River Basin, and the precipitation drought index (SPI) mattered most, though it was weak on severe drought.
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ForecastingGraupel and supercooled rain predict lightning better than ZDR columns at 6 minutes
In 15 isolated South China thunderstorms, graupel and supercooled rain content gave the best 6-minute lightning forecasts, while ZDR column volume looked better at 12 minutes.
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ForecastingFeeding past streamflow into an LSTM sharply improves Western U.S. streamflow estimates
Giving an LSTM recent streamflow observations raises its accuracy most at the daily scale, while snow observations help only at the monthly scale, mainly in snow-dominated basins.
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ForecastingIntegrated agricultural models forecast drought impacts sooner than rainfall
An integrated system forecasting farm profits and crop yields provides reliable drought warnings months ahead of rainfall-based indicators.
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ForecastingAnalog method gives skillful temperature and rainfall-index forecasts from seasons to years
Picking climate-model years whose ocean temperatures match today's observed pattern gives seasonal to multi-year forecasts that are close to operational systems at far lower computing cost.