Archive

October 2026

1. Oceans

   Preindustrial ocean circulation alone drives over half of modeled Southern Ocean heat uptake

   EarthArXiv 1 October 2026 Preprint

2. Extremes

   Projected 2026–27 super El Niño could raise east Pacific extreme sea-level risk about tenfold

   EarthArXiv 30 September 2026 Preprint

3. Observations

   Satellite-detected oil-gas methane point sources emitted 7.6 Tg y-1 in 2025

   EarthArXiv 30 September 2026 Preprint

4. Climate change

   Energy-imbalance trends since 2006 fit climate sensitivity estimates consistent with past assessments

   EarthArXiv 26 September 2026 Preprint

5. Climate change

   Hydrogen aircraft contrail cirrus forcing is modelled as 66 % lower than for jet fuel

   Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 25 September 2026

   
6. Forecasting

   AI models fed predicted ocean temperatures rival a physics model on hurricane seasons

   EarthArXiv 22 September 2026 Preprint

7. Extremes

   Short, local sea salt spraying cooled a simulated 2019 Northeast Pacific marine heatwave

   EarthArXiv 16 September 2026 Preprint

8. Atmospheric chemistry

   UK fine particle levels fell sharply after 2019, mainly from less ammonium nitrate

   EarthArXiv 15 September 2026 Preprint

9. Forecasting

   Record El Niño projected to push global temperatures to 1.91°C above pre-industrial levels

   EGUsphere 7 September 2026 Preprint

10. Forecasting

    ECMWF's forecast model now routes rivers and floods globally in operations

    EGUsphere 4 September 2026 Preprint

11. Cryosphere

    Oregon central Cascade glaciers lost about 20 % of their area from 2018/20 to 2023

    EGUsphere 2 September 2026 Preprint

12. Cryosphere

    Open data show the first flood wave came within minutes, not from the later lake overflow

    EarthArXiv 31 August 2026 Preprint

13. Observations

    Repeated satellite looks estimate large methane emissions per Permian facility

    EarthArXiv 31 August 2026 Preprint

14. Forecasting

    A 13 km machine learning weather model matches ICON on near-surface forecasts

    arXiv 25 August 2026 Preprint

    
15. Clouds and aerosols

    Ground-based lidars show daytime low cloud cover falling at mid- to high-latitude land sites

    EarthArXiv 21 August 2026 Preprint

16. Models and methods

    Long-window 4D-Var with NeuralGCM beats 20CRv3 using only surface pressure

    arXiv 12 August 2026 Preprint

    
17. Cryosphere

    Slush covers far more of Greenland's ice sheet than lakes, channels and crevasses combined

    The Cryosphere 7 August 2026

    
18. Oceans

    Ocean heat transport, not air-sea flux, drives regional warming in the top 200 m

    EGUsphere 6 August 2026 Preprint

19. Climate change

    Human-induced warming reached 1.37 °C in 2025, rising 0.27 °C per decade

    Earth System Science Data 5 June 2026

    
20. Climate change

    2024 saw record CO2 growth and a large budget gap as fossil emissions rose 1.1 %

    Earth System Science Data 13 May 2026

    
21. Models and methods

    CMIP7 proposes seven emission scenarios, run mostly in emission-driven mode

    Geoscientific Model Development 7 April 2026

    
22. Atmospheric chemistry

    Realistic particle size and mixing shift black carbon radiative forcing in a coal region

    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2 March 2026

    
23. Forecasting

    Multi-GPU model simulates a Berlin-wide flood at 5 m resolution in 34 minutes

    Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 13 January 2026

    
24. Cryosphere

    Swiss glaciers cushioned the 2022 drought, but total meltwater was lower than in 2003

    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 6 January 2026

    
25. Atmospheric chemistry

    TFA in Swiss rain and rivers rose four to six times since the 1990s; known sources explain part

    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 6 January 2026

    
26. Observations

    Argo floats and machine learning yield gridded Southern Ocean carbon maps to 5600 m

    Earth System Science Data 15 December 2025

    
27. Observations

    China's forest biomass density rose from 95.74 to 122.69 Mg per hectare between 1985 and 2023

    Earth System Science Data 10 December 2025

    
28. Observations

    New global methane inventory for oil, gas and coal totals 74 Tg a−1 in 2020

    Earth System Science Data 10 December 2025

    
29. Oceans

    Iodine-129 and uranium-236 track Atlantic and Pacific water shifts in the central Arctic

    Ocean Science 5 December 2025

    
30. Observations

    Open Sentinel-1 dataset labels oil slicks and look-alikes in the Eastern Mediterranean

    Earth System Science Data 4 December 2025

    
31. Observations

    Dry land before a flash drought is linked to stronger heat feedback during it

    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2 December 2025

    
32. Oceans

    Weaker Shamal winds, La Niña and negative NAO drive the Gulf's hottest summers

    Ocean Science 2 December 2025

    
33. AI and machine learning

    LSTM beats Transformers on standard hydrology tasks, but attention models win on harder ones

    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 1 December 2025

    
34. Observations

    Open global dataset maps 2.75 billion buildings with heights from satellite images

    Earth System Science Data 1 December 2025

    
35. Forecasting

    Ten-member ICON ensemble with two-moment ice scheme detects more ice-supersaturated air

    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 1 December 2025

    
36. Atmospheric chemistry

    AGAGE data show 2023 emissions and levels of 42 trace gases, with limits

    Earth System Science Data 27 November 2025

    
37. Oceans

    Subpolar North Atlantic plankton stay smaller even after CO2 returns to its starting level

    Earth System Dynamics 20 November 2025

    
38. Hydrology

    Agricultural expansion aggravates water shortage more than climate change

    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 18 November 2025

    
39. Observations

    New open dataset pairs pre-event optical and post-event radar images to map building damage

    Earth System Science Data 18 November 2025

    
40. Forecasting

    New EAWS Matrix standardizes avalanche danger assessment across Europe

    Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 13 November 2025

    
41. Atmospheric chemistry

    Saharan dust reached Monte Cimone on 15.8 % of days over 21 years, with no trend

    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 12 November 2025

    
42. Extremes

    Survey of 481 water managers shows reactive drought responses across Europe in 2022

    Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 12 November 2025

    
43. Clouds and aerosols

    Polluted subtropical clouds brighten more in the morning and barely at all in the afternoon

    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 10 November 2025

44. Atmospheric chemistry

    A global air pollutant emission mosaic now covers 2000–2020 at monthly resolution

    Earth System Science Data 7 November 2025

    
45. Atmospheric chemistry

    Satellite data show dust above WHO limits in most of 81 large cities

    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 5 November 2025

    
46. Oceans

    Glider and SWOT satellite watch a smaller eddy merge into the Lofoten Vortex

    Ocean Science 4 November 2025

    
47. Forecasting

    Rainfall-based drought index is the top predictor of hydrological drought in the Huaihe Basin

    Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 4 November 2025

    
48. Atmospheric chemistry

    Satellite data show global methane emissions surged in 2020–2021, then fell

    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 3 November 2025

    
49. AI and machine learning

    Stand-alone LSTMs cannot predict river flows above a limit set below their training peak

    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 3 November 2025

    
50. Extremes

    Review of 192 papers finds few indicators built for multi-hazard or multi-risk use

    Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 31 October 2025

    
51. Cryosphere

    Streamlined bed landforms found under slow ice at the start of the NE Greenland Ice Stream

    The Cryosphere 30 October 2025

    
52. Cryosphere

    Saharan dust cut Argentière Glacier's 2022 mass balance by 0.63 m w.e., double earlier years

    The Cryosphere 29 October 2025

    
53. Atmospheric chemistry

    Weather pushed up China's ozone trends in all seasons, but methods disagree most

    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 27 October 2025

    
54. Atmospheric chemistry

    PM2.5 in south China fell 2007–2020 while nitrate's share doubled and aerosol acidity dropped

    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 26 October 2025

    
55. Cryosphere

    Thermokarst lakes on the Tibetan Plateau thaw permafrost and form through-taliks beneath them

    The Cryosphere 23 October 2025

    
56. Forecasting

    Graupel and supercooled rain predict lightning better than ZDR columns at 6 minutes

    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 22 October 2025

    
57. Hydrology

    Soil moisture falls as precipitation rises in some dry and cold Northern Hemisphere regions

    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22 October 2025

    
58. Forecasting

    Feeding past streamflow into an LSTM sharply improves Western U.S. streamflow estimates

    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21 October 2025

    
59. Forecasting

    Integrated agricultural models forecast drought impacts sooner than rainfall

    Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 21 October 2025

    
60. Climate change

    Nine climate models disagree widely on dust forcing, but agree dust cuts precipitation

    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 21 October 2025

    
61. Clouds and aerosols

    Arctic mixed-phase clouds lasted by constantly forming new droplets, with plentiful ice nuclei

    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 20 October 2025

    
62. Extremes

    Extreme droughts in central Chile projected to double in frequency by 2070

    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 20 October 2025

    
63. Cryosphere

    New 60-year Swiss snow maps track stations well, except at low elevations

    The Cryosphere 20 October 2025

    
64. Oceans

    North Sea marine heatwaves rose mainly because average sea surface temperature climbed

    Ocean Science 20 October 2025

    
65. Cryosphere

    Radar-imaged ice layers could be built into a continent-wide age–depth model of Antarctica

    The Cryosphere 20 October 2025

    
66. Oceans

    Sea level rebuilt at 945 tide gauges since 1900 shows a rise of 1.75 mm per year

    Earth System Science Data 20 October 2025

    
67. Observations

    Drone LiDAR and clustering give daily snow depth and SWE maps in Finnish boreal sites

    The Cryosphere 16 October 2025

    
68. Forecasting

    Analog method gives skillful temperature and rainfall-index forecasts from seasons to years

    Earth System Dynamics 15 October 2025

    
69. Extremes

    Fire emissions ran 9 % above average in 2024–2025 despite less burned area

    Earth System Science Data 15 October 2025

    
70. Models and methods

    Review compares four ways to model microplastics in estuaries and sets out good practice

    Geoscientific Model Development 15 October 2025

    
71. Cryosphere

    SMOS satellite product detects first autumn soil freezing, but later than ground sensors

    Earth System Science Data 15 October 2025

    
72. Hydrology

    Water stress in central Chile has risen for decades, driven mostly by rising water use

    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 15 October 2025

    
73. Cryosphere

    Warm lake water above 4 °C helped an Arctic Swedish glacier retreat quickly

    The Cryosphere 10 October 2025

    
74. Hydrology

    Soil salt area in a dry Chinese river basin held steady while salt severity rose

    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 9 October 2025