Extremes
New weather and climate research on extremes, one page per paper.
All summaries
-
ExtremesMulti-GPU model simulates a Berlin-wide flood at 5 m resolution in 34 minutes
With eight GPUs, the RIM2D flood model can simulate a 48-hour rainstorm over all of Berlin fast enough for early warning, at 10 m, 5 m and even 2 m resolution.
-
ExtremesSwiss glaciers cushioned the 2022 drought, but total meltwater was lower than in 2003
In the 2022 drought, extra glacier melt offset water deficits in catchments with around 15 % glacier cover, yet shrinking glacier area meant total meltwater was already below the 2003 level in most catchments.
-
ExtremesDry land before a flash drought is linked to stronger heat feedback during it
Satellite data show that flash droughts starting from water-stressed land have stronger surface heating, and in parts of Africa low vegetation water content 1–2 months earlier goes with hotter peaks.
-
ExtremesWeaker Shamal winds, La Niña and negative NAO drive the Gulf's hottest summers
Extreme summer sea temperatures in the Arabian Gulf come from weaker local winds and trapped moist air, and ENSO and the NAO together explain over 50 % of the year-to-year variation.
-
ExtremesNew open dataset pairs pre-event optical and post-event radar images to map building damage
Bright is the first open, global dataset combining pre-disaster optical and post-disaster radar images of buildings, and models trained on it work well within known events but struggle on new ones.
-
ExtremesSurvey of 481 water managers shows reactive drought responses across Europe in 2022
The 2022 drought showed that European water managers see rising drought risk but mostly respond with short-term, supply-side fixes, so the authors call for a binding European Drought Directive.
-
ExtremesStand-alone LSTMs cannot predict river flows above a limit set below their training peak
When fed extreme design rainfall, a stand-alone LSTM runoff model hits a ceiling well below flows it saw in training, and its runoff share falls as rain rises, while a hybrid model scales more sensibly.
-
ExtremesReview of 192 papers finds few indicators built for multi-hazard or multi-risk use
Many studies labelled multi-hazard simply layer separate single-hazard results, and few develop indicators that capture how hazards interact or how risks combine.
-
ExtremesIntegrated agricultural models forecast drought impacts sooner than rainfall
An integrated system forecasting farm profits and crop yields provides reliable drought warnings months ahead of rainfall-based indicators.
-
ExtremesExtreme droughts in central Chile projected to double in frequency by 2070
Climate models show that extreme droughts in central Chile will occur twice as often by 2070 compared to today, with greater intensity.
-
ExtremesNorth Sea marine heatwaves rose mainly because average sea surface temperature climbed
Over 1982–2024, rising mean sea surface temperature, not changes in variability, drove most of the increase in North Sea marine heatwaves, with a clear step up after 2013.
-
ExtremesFire emissions ran 9 % above average in 2024–2025 despite less burned area
The 2024–2025 fire season released more carbon than average even though less land burned, and the report's models find climate change made four extreme regional fire events more likely.