Climate change
New weather and climate research on climate change, one page per paper.
All summaries
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Climate changeHydrogen aircraft contrail cirrus forcing is modelled as 66 % lower than for jet fuel
In a model, hydrogen-powered aircraft make contrail cirrus with much less warming than jet fuel aircraft in most cases, but lubrication oil droplets could erase the benefit.
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Climate changeHuman-induced warming reached 1.37 °C in 2025, rising 0.27 °C per decade
The fourth annual indicator update finds human-induced warming at 1.37 °C in 2025, rising at 0.27 °C per decade, with emissions at a record high but no longer growing rapidly.
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Climate change2024 saw record CO2 growth and a large budget gap as fossil emissions rose 1.1 %
Fossil emissions hit a new high in 2024 and are projected to rise again in 2025, while 2024's record atmospheric CO2 growth left the carbon budget about 1.7 GtC out of balance.
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Climate changeCMIP7 proposes seven emission scenarios, run mostly in emission-driven mode
ScenarioMIP for CMIP7 sets out seven emission scenarios, from High to Very Low, to be run mostly with CO2 emissions driving the models, with some extended to 2500.
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Climate changeChina's forest biomass density rose from 95.74 to 122.69 Mg per hectare between 1985 and 2023
A 30 m annual map of China's forest biomass from 1985 to 2023 shows aboveground carbon stock rising from 5.50 to 13.97 PgC, mostly through growth of existing forest.
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Climate changeNew global methane inventory for oil, gas and coal totals 74 Tg a−1 in 2020
GFEI v3 maps nationally reported 2020 fossil fuel methane emissions onto a 0.1° grid using new infrastructure and coal mine data, and it stays below other inventories and satellite-based estimates.
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Climate changeIodine-129 and uranium-236 track Atlantic and Pacific water shifts in the central Arctic
Two radionuclide tracers show that in 2021 Pacific-influenced surface water met Atlantic-origin water at the Lomonosov Ridge, that this front moved from the Makarov Basin toward the ridge between 2011/2012 and 2015, and that Atlantic layer ages rose from 2015 to 2021 in several regions.
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Climate changeWeaker Shamal winds, La Niña and negative NAO drive the Gulf's hottest summers
Extreme summer sea temperatures in the Arabian Gulf come from weaker local winds and trapped moist air, and ENSO and the NAO together explain over 50 % of the year-to-year variation.
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Climate changeSubpolar North Atlantic plankton stay smaller even after CO2 returns to its starting level
In a climate model, removing CO2 back to its starting level does not bring back large diatoms in the Subpolar North Atlantic, because weaker ocean circulation keeps surface nutrients low, and this cuts carbon export.
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Climate changeAgricultural expansion aggravates water shortage more than climate change
Agricultural land expansion, not climate change, is the primary driver of intensifying water crises in arid regions.
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Climate changeSurvey of 481 water managers shows reactive drought responses across Europe in 2022
The 2022 drought showed that European water managers see rising drought risk but mostly respond with short-term, supply-side fixes, so the authors call for a binding European Drought Directive.
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Climate changeSatellite data show global methane emissions surged in 2020–2021, then fell
Using TROPOMI satellite data, the authors estimate global methane emissions rose from 560 Tg a−1 in 2019 to 587–592 Tg a−1 in 2020–2021, with sub-Saharan African wetlands, especially in South Sudan, likely playing a major role.
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Climate changeNine climate models disagree widely on dust forcing, but agree dust cuts precipitation
When nine CMIP6 models double dust emissions, they differ a lot in how much energy dust adds or removes, yet eight of nine show less precipitation.
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Climate changeExtreme droughts in central Chile projected to double in frequency by 2070
Climate models show that extreme droughts in central Chile will occur twice as often by 2070 compared to today, with greater intensity.
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Climate changeNew 60-year Swiss snow maps track stations well, except at low elevations
A quantile-mapped snow model gives 1 km daily Swiss snow data since 1962 that works well above 1000 m and for yearly or regional use, but is weaker at low elevations, single grid points and short time spans.
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Climate changeNorth Sea marine heatwaves rose mainly because average sea surface temperature climbed
Over 1982–2024, rising mean sea surface temperature, not changes in variability, drove most of the increase in North Sea marine heatwaves, with a clear step up after 2013.
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Climate changeFire emissions ran 9 % above average in 2024–2025 despite less burned area
The 2024–2025 fire season released more carbon than average even though less land burned, and the report's models find climate change made four extreme regional fire events more likely.
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Climate changeWater stress in central Chile has risen for decades, driven mostly by rising water use
Water stress in central Chile has grown mainly because people use more water, and the 2010–2022 megadrought and future drying would push many basins to high or extreme stress.
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Climate changeWarm lake water above 4 °C helped an Arctic Swedish glacier retreat quickly
At Kaskasapakte Glacier in Arctic Sweden, lake water warmer than 4 °C carved notches into the ice front and drove calving, and ice lost at the front made up about 30% of volume loss from 2015 to 2019.